Document Type

Article

Publication Title

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

Department

Mathematics

ISSN

1559-0410

Volume

10

Issue

1

DOI

10.1515/jqas-2013-0127

First Page

67

Last Page

79

Publication Date

1-1-2014

Abstract

We present a notational analysis of offensive tactics commonly employed in elite men's water polo and address three questions related to this objective: which tactics are most effective?, which tactical performance indicators best classify the winning team?, and how accurate are predictive models based on these performance indicators? We define a new statistic, Efficiency Rating, which quantifies the importance of a tactic via a weighted average of direct and indirect goals generated by its use. By this measure, direct shot is the most efficient even strategy despite being employed far less frequently than centre or perimeter tactics. We address our second question by measuring the effect size of winning over losing teams for 25 tactical variables and find that exclusion conversion rate is the most effective discriminatory statistic in both close and unbalanced games, correctly classifying almost 90% of all contests. To address our third question, we develop and apply a simple Binomial model based on goals generated per play which correctly predicts all eight games in the medal round of the 2012 Men's Olympics from preliminary rounds. Success probabilities are computed based on a weighted average of offensive and defensive efficiency with an optimal weight that favors defense.

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