Making probability judgments of future product failures: The role of mental unpacking

Document Type

Article

Publication Title

Journal of Consumer Psychology

ISSN

1057-7408

Volume

22

Issue

2

DOI

10.1016/j.jcps.2011.03.002

First Page

237

Last Page

248

Publication Date

4-1-2012

Abstract

When consumers mentally unpack (i.e., imagine) the reasons for product failure, their probability judgments of future product failures are higher than when no mental unpacking is undertaken. However, increasing the level of mental unpacking does not lead to monotonically increasing effects on probability judgments but results in inverted U-shaped relationships. Using a two-factor structure, we propose that when consumers undertake mental unpacking, there will be two conflicting processes; while imagining causes for an event will lead to greater perceived probability, the greater difficulty in generating reasons for an event will lead to lower perceived probability. © 2011 Society for Consumer Psychology.

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