Projected hydrogen cost from methane reforming for North America 2015-2050
16th World Hydrogen Energy Conference 2006, WHEC 2006
June 13-16, 2006
Date of Presentation
The Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model (H2Sim) was used to project the cost for hydrogen at the point of sale to light duty vehicles for distributed, small-scale steam methane reforming. Projections cover the period from 2010-2050 in North America, and take into account assumptions about the quantity of recoverable natural gas remaining in North America. We conclude that there is a window for distributed reforming to play a positive role in supplying a H2 fuel infrastructure, but this window is closing rapidly. The analysis assumes that production from natural gas reserves in North America will peak sometime before 2050 and demand will cause the price to rise after the peak of production in a manner consistent with Hotelling's model. We consider three scenarios for when the peak occurs, and evaluate the impact on the cost of hydrogen fuel produced via distributed small scale reforming in these three scenarios.
Lutz, A. E.,
Projected hydrogen cost from methane reforming for North America 2015-2050.
Paper presented at 16th World Hydrogen Energy Conference 2006, WHEC 2006 in Lyon France.