2016 Pacific Undergraduate Research and Creativity Conference (PURCC)

Title

Echoes of the Past

33

Mathematics

Format

Poster Presentation

John Mayberry

Mathematics

Abstract/Artist Statement

The desire for a competitive edge should be familiar to anyone with a passing understanding of sports competitions where victory is paramount. The following project aimed to model competitive games of Water Polo using mathematics and computer simulations to get a competitive edge through understanding the influence of past possessions. Of specific interest was the significance of prior possessions on scoring outcomes. The two types of previous possessions we quantified were: I. Immediate Previous Possessions (IPP) the possession immediately before the current possession. II. Previous Offensive Attempts (POA) The current offensive team’s previous possession. Standard confidence interval and sampling procedure were followed along with data analytic methods to form conclusions from our provided water polo data of competitive games. Our findings strongly indicate the influence of IPP in elite, Olympic level Water Polo. These influences amount to the changes in the likelihood to score a goal for the team’s next possession. We also indirectly found out that POA did not significantly affect the goal-scoring potential in the current offensive team’s next possession. As one team’s POA is another team’s IPP based on a shift on perspective, we can say IPP are important for a water polo team’s offensive consideration, while POA are important for defensive consideration at the Olympic level. We also have mathematically accurate simulation programs for water polo based on our data to extrapolate further.

Location

DeRosa University Center, Ballroom

Start Date

30-4-2016 1:30 AM

End Date

30-4-2016 3:30 PM

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COinS

Apr 30th, 1:30 AM Apr 30th, 3:30 PM

Echoes of the Past

DeRosa University Center, Ballroom

The desire for a competitive edge should be familiar to anyone with a passing understanding of sports competitions where victory is paramount. The following project aimed to model competitive games of Water Polo using mathematics and computer simulations to get a competitive edge through understanding the influence of past possessions. Of specific interest was the significance of prior possessions on scoring outcomes. The two types of previous possessions we quantified were: I. Immediate Previous Possessions (IPP) the possession immediately before the current possession. II. Previous Offensive Attempts (POA) The current offensive team’s previous possession. Standard confidence interval and sampling procedure were followed along with data analytic methods to form conclusions from our provided water polo data of competitive games. Our findings strongly indicate the influence of IPP in elite, Olympic level Water Polo. These influences amount to the changes in the likelihood to score a goal for the team’s next possession. We also indirectly found out that POA did not significantly affect the goal-scoring potential in the current offensive team’s next possession. As one team’s POA is another team’s IPP based on a shift on perspective, we can say IPP are important for a water polo team’s offensive consideration, while POA are important for defensive consideration at the Olympic level. We also have mathematically accurate simulation programs for water polo based on our data to extrapolate further.