The Emerging Reality in Palestine: Entrenched Occupation and “Fragnation”

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The Oslo process was expected to facilitate a gradual end to Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territory and a gradual strengthening of Palestinian national institutions, leading within five years to a negotiated two-state solution to the conflict. Twenty years later the opposite has occurred: Israel’s occupation has become further entrenched, and Palestinian political and economic development has been paralysed by mutually reinforcing dynamics of fragmentation and stagnation (what we call “fragnation”). These trajectories pose formidable challenges to the achievement of a two-state solution, but may yet be reversible. The emerging reality is complex and dynamic, shaped by contradictory trends that point to both opportunities and risks.